4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2016-10-16 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread -7.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

PIT
60.1%
MIA
39.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Ryan Tannehill (MIA) -0.027 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.168 EPA/dropback
  • MIA defense: +0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 24
–
MIA 20
Projected margin: PIT by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

PIT

Marcus Gilbert T Out Ankle
Cameron Heyward DE Out Hamstring
Ryan Shazier LB Out Knee
Shamarko Thomas S Out Groin
Cody Wallace C Out Knee
Markus Wheaton WR Out Shoulder
Sammie Coates WR Questionable Finger

MIA

Jordan Cameron TE Out Concussion
Xavien Howard CB Out Knee
Isa Abdul-Quddus S Questionable Knee
Jakeem Grant WR Questionable Ankle
MarQueis Gray TE Questionable Calf
Anthony Steen G Questionable Ankle
Laremy Tunsil T Questionable Ankle
Arian Foster RB Questionable Hamstring
Jelani Jenkins LB Questionable Groin
Reshad Jones S Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 15
–
MIA 30

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:38 FG MIA (8:38) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. PIT 0 – MIA 3
  • Q1 05:52 TD PIT (5:52) 88-D.Heyward-Bey right end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – MIA 3
  • Q2 08:21 FG MIA (8:21) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. PIT 8 – MIA 6
  • Q2 05:33 FG MIA (5:33) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. PIT 8 – MIA 9
  • Q2 00:25 TD MIA (:25) 26-D.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-23-J.Ajayi, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Penalty on MIA-26-D.Williams, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, declined. PIT 8 – MIA 15
  • Q3 01:45 TD MIA (1:45) (No Huddle) 23-J.Ajayi right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 8 – MIA 22
  • Q4 01:08 TD PIT (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 83-C.Hamilton for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 14 – MIA 23
  • Q4 01:01 TD MIA (1:01) 23-J.Ajayi right end for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 15 – MIA 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:22) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 38 yards to MIA 24, Center-60-G.Warren. 14-J.Landry pushed ob at MIA 35 for 11 yards (51-S.Johnson).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

    (8:38) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:56) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 43 yards to PIT 31, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 19 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 49%

    (:45) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 27 yards to MIA 11, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (8:21) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 9 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (5:33) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (2:57) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 25 yards to MIA 29, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-98-V.Williams.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 97%

    (9:26) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 24 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-D.McCullers), Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr, ball out of bounds at PIT 19.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (:39) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 49 yards to MIA 33, Center-60-G.Warren. 19-J.Grant to MIA 48 for 15 yards (44-T.Matakevich). PIT-98-V.Williams was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 68%

    (12:15) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 20%

    (11:09) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to MIA 9, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-83-C.Hamilton.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 36 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 54%

    (4:29) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 34 yards to PIT 2, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-38-C.Chekwa.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:11) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown to PIT 49 for 5 yards (42-S.Paysinger).