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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 31

Miami Dolphins 23 – Pittsburgh Steelers 8

What Actually Happened

(12:15) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.76 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP