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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 50

Pittsburgh Steelers 8 – Miami Dolphins 23

What Actually Happened

(11:09) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to MIA 9, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-83-C.Hamilton.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.26 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 50, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.74 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model