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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 12

Miami Dolphins 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:38) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.76 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 12, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model