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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 65

Miami Dolphins 6 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(9:48) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 42 yards to BUF 23, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.79 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 23, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model