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Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
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Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2016-10-23 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

BUF
57.1%
MIA
42.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Tyrod Taylor (BUF): +0.135 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

BUF 24
–
MIA 21
Projected margin: BUF by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

BUF

Seantrel Henderson T Out Back
Marcell Dareus DT Doubtful Hamstring
Robert Woods WR Doubtful Foot
Charles Clay TE Questionable Ankle
Jerome Felton RB Questionable Back
Cordy Glenn T Questionable Ankle
Patrick Lewis C Questionable Knee
LeSean McCoy RB Questionable Hamstring
Kevon Seymour CB Questionable Shoulder
Kyle Williams DT Questionable Neck

MIA

Jordan Cameron TE Out Concussion
Xavien Howard CB Out Knee
Dion Sims TE Out Concussion
Arian Foster RB Questionable Hamstring
Jelani Jenkins LB Questionable Groin
Tony Lippett CB Questionable Hamstring
Spencer Paysinger LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 25
–
MIA 28

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:32 FG MIA (7:32) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. BUF 0 – MIA 3
  • Q1 00:53 FG BUF (:53) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 3 – MIA 3
  • Q2 11:57 TD BUF (11:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – MIA 3
  • Q2 03:54 FG MIA (3:54) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. BUF 10 – MIA 6
  • Q3 06:00 TD BUF (6:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 88-M.Goodwin for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-N.Suh]. BUF 16 – MIA 6
  • Q3 00:25 TD MIA (:25) 23-J.Ajayi left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 17 – MIA 12
  • Q4 04:12 TD MIA (4:12) (Shotgun) 26-D.Williams left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 17 – MIA 20
  • Q4 02:35 TD MIA (2:35) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 10-K.Stills for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 17 – MIA 27
  • Q4 00:19 TD BUF (:19) (Shotgun) 22-R.Bush left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on BUF, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. BUF 23 – MIA 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 91%

    (7:32) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 17 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:49) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to MIA 22, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-J.Grant to MIA 25 for 3 yards (35-M.Gillislee). PENALTY on MIA-35-W.Aikens, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 22.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 7 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:01) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 45 yards to BUF 40, Center-92-J.Denney. 15-B.Tate to MIA 30 for 30 yards (35-W.Aikens).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (:53) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 20 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (14:45) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 12 yards to MIA 40, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-42-S.Paysinger.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 14 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 93%

    (3:54) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 46%

    (:56) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 27 yards to MIA 13, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (12:53) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to MIA 23, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-J.Grant to MIA 31 for 8 yards (26-R.Blanton).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:48) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 42 yards to BUF 23, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:42) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to MIA 29, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 32 for 3 yards (35-M.Gillislee).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 11 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:07) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 36 yards to BUF 33, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 17 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 36%

    (12:22) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to MIA 1, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-15-B.Tate.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 46%

    (9:28) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:55) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 57 yards to MIA 28, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Landry to MIA 36 for 8 yards (57-L.Alexander).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:38) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 54 yards to MIA 21, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Landry to MIA 30 for 9 yards (50-R.Humber; 65-G.Sanborn).