Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 10 – Miami Dolphins 6

(7:42) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to MIA 29, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 32 for 3 yards (35-M.Gillislee).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.00 EP
54% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model