Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 69

Miami Dolphins 6 – Buffalo Bills 10

(6:07) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 36 yards to BUF 33, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.32 EP
70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 69, worth -3.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model