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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 40

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(9:28) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.64 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -1.66 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP