Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 85

Buffalo Bills 17 – Miami Dolphins 14

(7:55) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 57 yards to MIA 28, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Landry to MIA 36 for 8 yards (57-L.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.14 EP
70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 85, worth -4.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model