Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 17 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(4:49) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to MIA 22, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-J.Grant to MIA 25 for 3 yards (35-M.Gillislee). PENALTY on MIA-35-W.Aikens, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 22.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.52 EP
73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 67, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model