Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 85

Miami Dolphins 3 – Buffalo Bills 0

(3:01) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 45 yards to BUF 40, Center-92-J.Denney. 15-B.Tate to MIA 30 for 30 yards (35-W.Aikens).

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.14 EP
61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 85, worth -4.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model