Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 71

Green Bay Packers 3 – Chicago Bears 0

(6:41) 10-J.Schum punts 46 yards to CHI 25, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 37-B.Callahan.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.91 EP
61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 71, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model