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Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Thursday 2016-10-20 · 20:25 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

CHI
38.7%
GB
61.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to CHI: Aaron Rodgers (GB) -0.033 vs Brian Hoyer (CHI) -0.017 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CHI 20
–
GB 24
Projected margin: GB by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

CHI

Deiondre' Hall CB Out Ankle
Eddie Royal WR Out Toe
Jay Cutler QB Doubtful right Thumb
Eddie Goldman DT Doubtful Ankle
Jeremy Langford RB Doubtful Ankle
Josh Sitton G Doubtful Ankle
Sam Acho LB Questionable Ribs
Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Hamstring
Ka'Deem Carey RB Questionable Hamstring
Leonard Floyd LB Questionable Calf
Jerrell Freeman LB Questionable Wrist
Zach Miller TE Questionable Ribs
Tracy Porter CB Questionable Knee

GB

Jared Abbrederis WR Out Quadricep
Chris Banjo S Out Hamstring
Jared Cook TE Out Ankle
Eddie Lacy RB Out Ankle
Damarious Randall CB Out Groin
Quinten Rollins CB Out Groin
James Starks RB Out Knee
Davante Adams WR Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 10
–
GB 26

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:56 FG GB (8:56) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. CHI 0 – GB 3
  • Q2 02:00 FG CHI (2:00) 4-C.Barth 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – GB 3
  • Q2 00:22 FG GB (:22) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. CHI 3 – GB 6
  • Q3 14:43 TD CHI (14:43) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 5 for -10 yards (94-L.Floyd). FUMBLES (94-L.Floyd) [94-L.Floyd], touched at GB 1, RECOVERED by CHI-94-L.Floyd at GB -4. TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-69-D.Bakhtiari, Offensive Holding, declined. CHI 9 – GB 6
  • Q3 09:15 TD GB (9:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 10 – GB 12
  • Q4 15:00 TD GB (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 10 – GB 19
  • Q4 05:39 TD GB (5:39) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 18-R.Cobb for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 10 – GB 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (14:22) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to GB 26, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-T.Davis to GB 32 for 6 yards (11-J.Bellamy). FUMBLES (11-J.Bellamy), recovered by GB-22-A.Ripkowski at GB 33. 22-A.Ripkowski to GB 33 for no gain (27-S.McManis).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 75%

    (10:07) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 87-J.Nelson to CHI 20 for 9 yards (29-H.Jones-Quartey) [49-S.Acho].

  • Q1 GB 4th & 4 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 94%

    (8:56) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 18%

    (6:47) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to GB 9, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (:21) 88-T.Montgomery left tackle to CHI 1 for no gain (22-C.LeBlanc).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 23%

    (10:21) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to GB 8, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:41) 10-J.Schum punts 46 yards to CHI 25, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 37-B.Callahan.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 88%

    (2:00) 4-C.Barth 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 86%

    (:22) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 18 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (4:43) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to GB 12, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:16) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to GB 26, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 94%

    (1:41) 2-M.Crosby 31 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-A.Hicks), Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.