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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 29

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(10:07) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 87-J.Nelson to CHI 20 for 9 yards (29-H.Jones-Quartey) [49-S.Acho].

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.60 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 29, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model