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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 14

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.50 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 14, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model