4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 53

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to GB 9, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.78 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.15 EP
KICK -2.19 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model