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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 1

Green Bay Packers 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(:21) 88-T.Montgomery left tackle to CHI 1 for no gain (22-C.LeBlanc).

The Three Options

GO +4.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.06 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 1, worth +0.60 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model