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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 10

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 3-C.Parkey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.83 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 10, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model