Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CLE offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- CIN defense: +0.033 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- QB edge to CIN: Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.168 vs Cody Kessler (CLE) +0.126 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 7
CLE
CIN
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:19 TD CIN (12:19) (Shotgun) 25-G.Bernard right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – CIN 6
- Q2 13:30 FG CLE (13:30) 3-C.Parkey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 3 – CIN 7
- Q2 06:23 TD CLE (6:23) 34-I.Crowell right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – CIN 7
- Q2 04:17 TD CIN (4:17) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 11-B.LaFell for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-21-J.Taylor, Illegal Contact, declined. CLE 10 – CIN 13
- Q2 00:07 TD CIN (:07) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 18-A.Green for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – CIN 20
- Q3 10:54 TD CLE (10:54) 8-K.Hogan scrambles left tackle for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 16 – CIN 21
- Q3 09:59 TD CIN (9:59) 32-J.Hill right tackle for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 17 – CIN 27
- Q3 04:24 FG CIN (4:24) 2-M.Nugent 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CLE 17 – CIN 31
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 51%
(8:43) 4-B.Colquitt punts 43 yards to CIN 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. PENALTY on CLE-47-C.Hughlett, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 12.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 8 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 88%
(3:48) 2-M.Nugent 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%
(13:30) 3-C.Parkey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(12:11) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-C.Harris. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 30 for 3 yards (86-J.Wright; 33-R.Burkhead).
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Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 43%
(1:10) 4-B.Colquitt punts 28 yards to CIN 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 12 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(7:48) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to CIN 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, and recovers at CIN 13. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 16 for 3 yards (54-D.Alexander; 58-C.Kirksey).
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Q3 CIN 4th & 3 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 92%
(4:24) 2-M.Nugent 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 14 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(15:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to CIN 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 9 for no gain (53-J.Schobert). PENALTY on CIN-86-J.Wright, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 9.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 11 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 80%
(7:17) 2-M.Nugent 45 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 9 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(6:17) 4-B.Colquitt punts 36 yards to CIN 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 41 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 48%
(4:04) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.