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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 75

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-C.Harris. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 30 for 3 yards (86-J.Wright; 33-R.Burkhead).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model