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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 18

Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(4:24) 2-M.Nugent 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.08 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 18, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 28, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model