Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to CIN 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 9 for no gain (53-J.Schobert). PENALTY on CIN-86-J.Wright, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 9.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.65 EP
72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model