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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 64

Cleveland Browns 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 4-B.Colquitt punts 36 yards to CIN 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.07 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 22, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model