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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 41

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.96 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 41, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.08 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP