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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 55

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 4-B.Colquitt punts 43 yards to CIN 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. PENALTY on CLE-47-C.Hughlett, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.40 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP