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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 74

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 8

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 18-J.Locke punts 38 yards to PHI 36, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-94-J.Trattou.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 74, worth -4.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 32, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model