4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
MIN Away

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2016-10-23 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 💨 Windy Spread -2.5 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

MIN
44.8%
PHI
55.2%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN defense: -0.200 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Carson Wentz (PHI): +0.190 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN on 7 more days rest than PHI
  • MIN offense: -0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • Wind 20 mph

Predicted Final Score

MIN 22
–
PHI 24
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

MIN

Sharrif Floyd DT Out Knee
MyCole Pruitt TE Out Knee
Jarius Wright WR Doubtful Ankle
Stefon Diggs WR Questionable Groin
Laquon Treadwell WR Questionable Thumb

PHI

Bennie Logan DT Questionable Groin
Ron Brooks CB Questionable Calf
Mychal Kendricks LB Questionable Ribs
Leodis McKelvin CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 10
–
PHI 21

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 09:05 FG MIN (9:05) 3-B.Walsh 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 3 – PHI 0
  • Q2 09:01 TD PHI 3-B.Walsh kicks 63 yards from MIN 35 to PHI 2. 13-J.Huff for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – PHI 6
  • Q2 00:10 FG PHI (:10) 6-C.Sturgis 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. MIN 3 – PHI 11
  • Q3 05:49 TD PHI (5:49) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 18-D.Green-Beckham for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – PHI 17
  • Q4 06:10 FG PHI (6:10) 6-C.Sturgis 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. MIN 3 – PHI 21
  • Q4 00:37 TD MIN (:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 84-C.Patterson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-23-R.McLeod, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. MIN 9 – PHI 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:18) 8-D.Jones punts 60 yards to MIN 10, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 19 for 9 yards (47-T.Burton).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (10:34) 18-J.Locke punts 50 yards to PHI 11, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 5 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 26%

    (3:06) 18-J.Locke punts 43 yards to PHI 2, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-35-M.Sherels.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 15 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (14:05) 8-D.Jones punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 67%

    (9:05) 3-B.Walsh 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:23) 18-J.Locke punts 38 yards to PHI 36, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-94-J.Trattou.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:46) 8-D.Jones punts 44 yards to MIN 24, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 29%

    (1:21) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz left end to MIN 38 for 6 yards (55-A.Barr).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 97%

    (13:28) 44-M.Asiata left guard to PHI 6 for no gain (94-B.Allen).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:41) 8-D.Jones punts 42 yards to MIN 49, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 35-M.Sherels to 50 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by PHI-47-T.Burton at MIN 49. 47-T.Burton to MIN 49 for no gain (57-A.Cole).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.95 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (6:10) 6-C.Sturgis 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 53 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 12%

    (4:52) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass incomplete short left to 82-K.Rudolph (26-J.Watkins).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 14 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 93%

    (:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 84-C.Patterson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-23-R.McLeod, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.