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Minnesota Vikings

5-1 HC Mike Zimmer
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Philadelphia Eagles

4-2 HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2016-10-23 · 13:00 ET Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 💨 Windy Spread -2.5 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

MIN
45.9%
PHI
54.1%
💨 Windy

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • Carson Wentz (PHI): +0.190 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN on 7 more days rest than PHI
  • MIN defense: -0.200 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Wind 20 mph
  • PHI offense: +0.016 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIN 22 15–29
–
PHI 24 17–31
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 7

MIN

Sharrif Floyd DT Out Knee
MyCole Pruitt TE Out Knee
Jarius Wright WR Doubtful Ankle
Stefon Diggs WR Questionable Groin
Laquon Treadwell WR Questionable Thumb

PHI

Bennie Logan DT Questionable Groin
Ron Brooks CB Questionable Calf
Mychal Kendricks LB Questionable Ribs
Leodis McKelvin CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 10
–
PHI 21

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 09:05 FG MIN (9:05) 3-B.Walsh 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 3 – PHI 0
  • Q2 09:01 TD PHI 3-B.Walsh kicks 63 yards from MIN 35 to PHI 2. 13-J.Huff for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – PHI 6
  • Q2 00:10 FG PHI (:10) 6-C.Sturgis 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. MIN 3 – PHI 11
  • Q3 05:49 TD PHI (5:49) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 18-D.Green-Beckham for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – PHI 17
  • Q4 06:10 FG PHI (6:10) 6-C.Sturgis 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. MIN 3 – PHI 21
  • Q4 00:37 TD MIN (:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 84-C.Patterson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-23-R.McLeod, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. MIN 9 – PHI 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:18) 8-D.Jones punts 60 yards to MIN 10, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 19 for 9 yards (47-T.Burton).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (10:34) 18-J.Locke punts 50 yards to PHI 11, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 5 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 26%

    (3:06) 18-J.Locke punts 43 yards to PHI 2, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-35-M.Sherels.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PHI 4th & 15 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (14:05) 8-D.Jones punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 67%

    (9:05) 3-B.Walsh 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:23) 18-J.Locke punts 38 yards to PHI 36, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-94-J.Trattou.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PHI 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:46) 8-D.Jones punts 44 yards to MIN 24, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 29%

    (1:21) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz left end to MIN 38 for 6 yards (55-A.Barr).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 97%

    (13:28) 44-M.Asiata left guard to PHI 6 for no gain (94-B.Allen).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:41) 8-D.Jones punts 42 yards to MIN 49, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 35-M.Sherels to 50 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by PHI-47-T.Burton at MIN 49. 47-T.Burton to MIN 49 for no gain (57-A.Cole).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.95 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (6:10) 6-C.Sturgis 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 53 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 12%

    (4:52) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass incomplete short left to 82-K.Rudolph (26-J.Watkins).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 14 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 93%

    (:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 84-C.Patterson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-23-R.McLeod, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

    See the full breakdown →