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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 44

Philadelphia Eagles 8 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(1:21) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz left end to MIN 38 for 6 yards (55-A.Barr).

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.10 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model