Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 91

Philadelphia Eagles 18 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 8-D.Jones punts 42 yards to MIN 49, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 35-M.Sherels to 50 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by PHI-47-T.Burton at MIN 49. 47-T.Burton to MIN 49 for no gain (57-A.Cole).

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +1.03 EP
60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 91, worth -5.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model