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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 61

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 18-J.Locke punts 50 yards to PHI 11, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.69 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 20, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP