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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 2

Philadelphia Eagles 18 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 6-C.Sturgis 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +4.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.31 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 2, worth +0.40 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.95 EP