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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 14

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 84-C.Patterson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-23-R.McLeod, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.72 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.08 EP