Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 60

New Orleans Saints 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

(4:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to KC 11, Center-47-J.Drescher. 10-T.Hill to KC 11 for no gain (20-B.Dixon).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.35 EP
57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 60, worth -3.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model