Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NO offense: +0.167 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- NO defense: +0.192 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- KC defense: -0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- Drew Brees (NO): +0.182 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- KC offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 7
NO
KC
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:12 TD NO (6:12) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 10-B.Cooks for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – KC 0
- Q1 04:16 TD KC (4:16) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 32-S.Ware for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – KC 6
- Q1 00:58 TD KC (:58) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle intended for 83-W.Snead INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen (29-E.Berry) at NO 48. 49-D.Sorensen for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-73-J.Evans, Offensive Holding, declined. NO 7 – KC 13
- Q2 07:09 TD KC (7:09) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – KC 20
- Q3 07:02 TD NO (7:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 22-M.Ingram for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – KC 21
- Q3 03:26 FG KC (3:26) 5-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. NO 14 – KC 24
- Q4 02:40 TD NO (2:40) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 16-B.Coleman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 20 – KC 24
- Q4 00:33 FG KC (:33) 5-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. NO 21 – KC 27
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 KC 4th & 8 at the 38Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 53%
(10:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.
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Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(12:14) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to KC 15, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.
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Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(4:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to KC 11, Center-47-J.Drescher. 10-T.Hill to KC 11 for no gain (20-B.Dixon).
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Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(2:23) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to NO 10, Center-41-J.Winchester. 87-T.Lewis MUFFS catch, touched at NO 5, and recovers at NO 5. 87-T.Lewis to NO 4 for -1 yards (14-D.Robinson).
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Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 20%
(:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to KC 4, Center-47-J.Drescher, downed by NO-21-D.Harris.
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Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 21Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EPp(convert) 56% p(FG) 88%
(3:26) 5-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
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Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.65 EPp(convert) 71%
(1:03) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to KC 5, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.
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Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(12:21) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to NO 22, Center-41-J.Winchester. 87-T.Lewis pushed ob at NO 33 for 11 yards (41-J.Winchester).
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Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 54Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 53%
(5:07) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.
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Q4 KC 4th & 4 at the 23 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 85%
(:33) 5-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.