Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 65

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to NO 10, Center-41-J.Winchester. 87-T.Lewis MUFFS catch, touched at NO 5, and recovers at NO 5. 87-T.Lewis to NO 4 for -1 yards (14-D.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.33 EP
60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 65, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model