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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 52

New Orleans Saints 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to KC 4, Center-47-J.Drescher, downed by NO-21-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.74 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 52, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model