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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 38

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.18 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model