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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 21

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 5-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.90 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP