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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 54

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.08 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 54, worth -2.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP