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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 23

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(:33) 5-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +1.73 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model