Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 63

New York Giants 10 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(2:19) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 49 yards to LA 14, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-T.Austin to LA 14 for no gain (82-R.Lewis). FUMBLES (82-R.Lewis), and recovers at LA 11. 11-T.Austin to LA 11 for no gain (82-R.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.80 EP
53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 63, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model