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NYG Away

New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
@
LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
Sunday 2016-10-23 · 09:30 Twickenham Stadium, London GB ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

NYG
50.5%
LA
49.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • NYG offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • LA offense: -0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • NYG crossing 5 time zone(s)
  • NYG defense: +0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 22
–
LA 20
Projected margin: NYG by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

NYG

Nat Berhe S Out Concussion
Marshall Newhouse T Out Calf
Darian Thompson S Out Foot
Zak DeOssie LS Questionable Ankle

LA

Michael Brockers DT Out Thigh
Trumaine Johnson CB Out Ankle
Jamon Brown G Doubtful Hand
Nelson Spruce WR Doubtful Calf
William Hayes DE Questionable Ankle
Robert Quinn DE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 17
–
LA 10

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:21 TD LA (11:21) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass short middle to 11-T.Austin for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – LA 6
  • Q1 05:15 FG LA (5:15) 4-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. NYG 0 – LA 10
  • Q2 08:19 FG NYG (8:19) (Field Goal formation) 5-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 3 – LA 10
  • Q2 07:31 TD NYG (7:31) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass short middle intended for 11-T.Austin INTERCEPTED by 21-L.Collins at LA 44. 21-L.Collins for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYG-58-O.Odighizuwa, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. NYG 9 – LA 10
  • Q4 09:27 TD NYG (9:27) (No Huddle) 23-R.Jennings left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 16 – LA 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:54) 9-B.Wing punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 11 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 90%

    (5:15) 4-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:53) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to LA 24, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 25%

    (15:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 31 yards to NYG 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (8:19) (Field Goal formation) 5-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 32%

    (4:45) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to NYG 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-58-C.Littleton.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:19) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 49 yards to LA 14, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-T.Austin to LA 14 for no gain (82-R.Lewis). FUMBLES (82-R.Lewis), and recovers at LA 11. 11-T.Austin to LA 11 for no gain (82-R.Lewis).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 11 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:33) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 60 yards to NYG 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 17-D.Harris to NYG 39 for 9 yards (54-B.Hager).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:49) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to LA 11, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-T.Austin to LA 23 for 12 yards (26-O.Darkwa).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:12) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to NYG 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 17-D.Harris to NYG 18 for 3 yards (58-C.Littleton). NYG-17-D.Harris was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (11:20) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to NYG 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 13-O.Beckham to NYG 10 for no gain (34-C.Reynolds; 15-B.Marquez). PENALTY on NYG-30-C.Sensabaugh, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 10.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:59) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 43 yards to NYG 48, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds. PENALTY on LA-39-M.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 48.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 43%

    (6:56) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to NYG 3, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-15-B.Marquez.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (3:29) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to LA 5, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 13 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:55) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to NYG 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 17-D.Harris to NYG 11 for 1 yard (38-C.Davis).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:35) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to LA 13, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-T.Austin ran ob at LA 32 for 19 yards (52-J.Casillas).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (3:10) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 49 yards to LA 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 64 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:06) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum to LA 30 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at LA 30. 17-C.Keenum pass short middle to 83-B.Quick to NYG 49 for 15 yards (33-A.Adams).