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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 41

Los Angeles Rams 10 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(6:56) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to NYG 3, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-15-B.Marquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.65 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP