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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 74

New York Giants 17 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(3:10) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 49 yards to LA 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.25 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 74, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model