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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 61

New York Giants 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(9:54) 9-B.Wing punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.29 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 61, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model