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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 18

Los Angeles Rams 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 4-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.68 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 18, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model