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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 14

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(14:57) 11-S.Janikowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.35 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 14, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model