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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
Sunday 2016-10-23 · 13:00 EverBank Field, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

OAK
47.2%
JAX
52.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.012 vs Derek Carr (LV) -0.038 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

OAK 23
–
JAX 24
Projected margin: JAX by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

OAK

Vadal Alexander G Doubtful Ankle
Jon Feliciano G Questionable Calf
Rodney Hudson C Questionable Knee
Gabe Jackson G Questionable Knee
Taiwan Jones RB Questionable Knee
Latavius Murray RB Questionable Toe
Brynden Trawick S Questionable Shoulder
Menelik Watson T Questionable Calf

JAX

Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Knee
Jared Odrick DE Questionable Hip
Neal Sterling WR Questionable Foot
Julius Thomas TE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 33
–
JAX 16

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:08 FG LV (9:08) 11-S.Janikowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 3 – JAX 0
  • Q2 14:57 FG LV (14:57) 11-S.Janikowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 6 – JAX 0
  • Q2 12:41 FG JAX (12:41) 2-J.Myers 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. OAK 6 – JAX 3
  • Q2 05:37 TD LV (5:37) 28-L.Murray left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 12 – JAX 3
  • Q2 01:52 FG JAX (1:52) 2-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. OAK 13 – JAX 6
  • Q2 00:14 TD LV (:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LV-15-M.Crabtree, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. OAK 19 – JAX 6
  • Q3 12:15 FG JAX (12:15) 2-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. OAK 20 – JAX 9
  • Q3 02:31 FG LV (2:31) 11-S.Janikowski 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 23 – JAX 9
  • Q4 11:37 FG LV (11:37) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. PENALTY on JAX-90-M.Jackson, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced between downs. OAK 26 – JAX 9
  • Q4 04:17 TD JAX (4:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 80-J.Thomas for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-91-S.Calhoun, Defensive Offside, declined. OAK 26 – JAX 15
  • Q4 02:39 TD LV (2:39) 28-L.Murray up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 32 – JAX 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:37) 7-M.King punts 57 yards to JAX 14, Center-59-J.Condo. 13-R.Greene to JAX 22 for 8 yards (20-N.Allen; 16-J.Holton).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:34) 3-B.Nortman punts 56 yards to LV 20, Center-46-C.Tinker. 30-J.Richard to LV 30 for 10 yards (16-D.Robinson).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 5 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (9:08) 11-S.Janikowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 20%

    (:17) 7-M.King punts 40 yards to JAX 13, Center-59-J.Condo. 13-R.Greene MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LV-18-A.Holmes at JAX 17. 18-A.Holmes to JAX 17 for no gain (47-J.Wilson).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%

    (14:57) 11-S.Janikowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (12:41) 2-J.Myers 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 14 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 90%

    (1:52) 2-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 82%

    (12:15) 2-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:38) 7-M.King punts 60 yards to JAX 1, Center-59-J.Condo. 13-R.Greene to JAX 7 for 6 yards (16-J.Holton).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 8 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:19) 3-B.Nortman punts 55 yards to LV 36, Center-46-C.Tinker. 30-J.Richard to LV 41 for 5 yards (59-A.Brown).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 11 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:55) 3-B.Nortman punts 42 yards to JAX 47, Center-46-C.Tinker. 30-J.Richard to JAX 37 for 10 yards (47-J.Wilson; 25-P.Thompson).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 9 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 83%

    (2:31) 11-S.Janikowski 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:33) 3-B.Nortman punts 42 yards to LV 38, Center-46-C.Tinker. 30-J.Richard to JAX 20 for 42 yards (47-J.Wilson). Penalty on LV-32-A.Hamilton, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on LV-91-S.Calhoun, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 38.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 66%

    (11:37) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. PENALTY on JAX-90-M.Jackson, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:33) 3-B.Nortman punts 44 yards to LV 16, Center-46-C.Tinker. 30-J.Richard to LV 32 for 16 yards (47-J.Wilson).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 9 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:26) 7-M.King punts 56 yards to JAX 11, Center-59-J.Condo. 13-R.Greene to JAX 17 for 6 yards (16-J.Holton).