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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 26

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 2-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.60 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model